Venture Market Mid-October 2026: Record Capital Volumes, High Concentration in AI, Major Rounds of the Week, IPO Preparations, and Signals for Funds and Investors

Venture investments in 2026 are heading towards a historical record, but the market is becoming increasingly uneven. Capital is concentrating in a small group of companies related to artificial intelligence. The past week confirmed this: the largest rounds were secured by cloud AI infrastructure, fintech with AI products, and developers of AI agents. At the same time, the market is discussing the revenue quality of AI startups and the sustainability of infrastructure financed through debt. Below are the key events for venture investors and funds.

Macro Picture: Record Year Amidst Declining Quarterly Dynamics

According to Crunchbase, global venture investments in Q3 2026 reached $159 billion. About 6,000 startups received funding. The quarterly volume decreased by 25% compared to Q2 ($212 billion), but increased by 53% year-over-year. Over nine months, startups raised $679 billion, marking the highest amount for the same period in the history of observations.

• AI Share: $102 billion, or 64% of global venture capital for the quarter.
• Mega Rounds: 27 companies raised rounds of $1 billion or more. This is an absolute record: there were 16 such companies in Q2 and 14 in Q1.
• Geography: US startups accounted for $91 billion (57%), with the San Francisco Bay Area contributing 24% of the global volume.
• Stages: late rounds — $105 billion (+73% year-over-year), early rounds — $40.6 billion (+25%).

American statistics from PitchBook and NVCA show the same trend. From January to September, the volume of venture deals in the US reached $515.8 billion, with 82.7% going to AI companies. Meanwhile, about 90% of funds went into rounds of $50 million or more. For startups outside AI, the record market barely expands access to financing.

Key Theme of the Week: AI Infrastructure Attracts Mega Rounds

The most notable deal of the week was a $750 million Series D round for the Californian cloud platform Modal, with a post-money valuation of $15.75 billion. Accel led the round, with Kleiner Perkins joining in, alongside Menlo Ventures, General Catalyst, Redpoint, Lux Capital, and others. The company reported that its annual revenue run rate exceeded $1 billion, and platform usage tripled since May.

Investors are funding not only computing but also related elements of AI infrastructure:

1. Salience Labs (Oxford) raised $125 million in a Series B round led by Bullhound Capital with participation from AMD Ventures and Intel Capital. The company is developing optical switches for GPU clusters.
2. Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) secured strategic investments led by Siemens, amounting to over $100 million according to Bloomberg. The company became a "unicorn" and is setting up a supercapacitor manufacturing facility in the US for data centers.
3. Labelbox announced a Series E funding round of over $100 million, including a credit line. The funds will be used for reinforcement learning tools and corporate AI agents.
4. Tamr raised $21 million in growth investments from Volition Capital for corporate data management for AI systems.

The public market, however, is sending a warning signal. On October 14, shares of the AI cloud company CoreWeave sharply fell amid concerns over borrowing costs and the sustainability of infrastructure built on debt. For venture funds, this serves as an argument to differentiate companies with proven demand from projects whose revenue depends on future capacity utilization.

Fintech: Ramp Valued at $16 Billion More in Four Months

According to Bloomberg, the fintech platform Ramp raised about $1.85 billion at a pre-investment valuation of approximately $60 billion. The round was led by Dragoneer and Thrive Capital, with a large check issued by Founders Fund. In June, the company raised $750 million at a valuation of $44 billion. Ramp serves over 70,000 companies, and its annual revenue surpassed $1.5 billion by summer, according to Bloomberg. The company has not commented on the round.

The deal highlights the consolidation of the corporate expense management segment. Ramp's closest competitor, Brex, transitioned to the control of Capital One this year. Ramp is enhancing the AI component of its products, which directly supports its valuation.

AI Agents and Geopolitics: Manus Raised over $500 Million

Butterfly Effect, the parent company of AI agent developer Manus, closed a round of over $500 million. Co-investors included Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with participation from Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund. This is the first financing following Beijing's push that forced Meta to cancel the deal to acquire Manus for over $2 billion. The valuation remains undisclosed, although previous reports indicated negotiations at the $4 billion level.

The Manus case illustrates that regulatory risk in cross-border AI deals has become a separate consideration in due diligence. Investors need to take into account not only technology but also jurisdiction, capital structure, and the potential for exit through strategic sale.

Deep Tech, Biotech, and Defense: Capital for Long Cycles

Apart from AI, venture funds continue to finance capital-intensive technologies with a long payback horizon:

• OMass Therapeutics (Oxford) raised $310 million in an oversubscribed Series C round. The round was led by Bain Capital Life Sciences, Forbion, and Novo Holdings. The funds will be used for clinical research of drugs in endocrinology and immunology.
• Oratomic closed a Series B round of $475 million for the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers.
• Sabi received $50 million in seed stage funding led by Khosla Ventures. The company is creating a wearable interface for "brain - AI" communication.
• Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for maneuverable spacecraft to protect orbital infrastructure.
• Tessolve Semiconductor (India) secured $75 million from Vector Line Capital for international expansion through acquisitions.

Funds and LP: OrbiMed Raised $3 Billion

The funding side also remains active. Specialized healthcare investor OrbiMed announced the closing of $3 billion across two funds. OrbiMed Private Investments X raised over $1.9 billion for venture deals in life sciences in the US and Europe. OrbiMed Asia Partners VI gathered over $1 billion for growth and venture investments in Asia. In the US, according to PitchBook-NVCA, emerging managers have closed 81 first funds totaling $4.9 billion since the beginning of the year. Recruitment of LPs continues to favor large and established teams.

IPO Window: DayOne Files for IPO, Anthropic Updates Timelines

The public offering market remains the primary channel for capital return for venture funds. This week:

1. The Singaporean AI data center operator DayOne Data Centers filed for an IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker DODC. Underwriters include Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, BofA Securities, and Citigroup.
2. Media reports suggest that Anthropic may start its roadshow during the week of November 9, about a month later than originally planned. The expected valuation is $1.8-2 trillion. The company has not officially confirmed the timeline.
3. The example of SpaceX, the largest IPO in history (June 2026, valuation $1.77 trillion), serves as a reminder of the volatility following the offering. Reports indicate that by the end of July, the company's shares lost about half of their peak value.

Russia and CIS: Market Contracts, Focus on Strategics

The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to the Moscow Venture Fund report, during the first half of 2026, investors allocated 4.6 billion rubles, nearly 48% less year-on-year. The shortage of capital is exacerbated by a tight monetary policy. Investors are focusing on robotics, IT, and artificial intelligence. The main exit scenario is selling a stake to a strategic investor rather than an IPO. The Moscow Venture Fund announced its intention to direct 250 million rubles into technology companies and expects around 1 billion rubles in co-investments.

Risks and Conclusions for Venture Investors

Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, pointed out the issue of "revenue quality" in AI. He suggests that a significant portion of AI companies' revenues comes from other AI startups, which themselves rely on venture funding. For funds, this presents several practical conclusions:

• Distinguish between run-rate and ARR. The annual revenue rate in consumption-based infrastructure is not equal to the contracted recurring revenue.
• Analyze the structure of the deal. The headline amount of the round may include credit lines and secondary stock sales.
• Consider client concentration. Dependence on venture capital-backed AI companies creates a chain of mutual risks.
• Account for regulatory risk. The Manus case illustrates that exit through sale can be blocked at the state level.
• Diversify beyond AI. Biotech, quantum technologies, defense, and industrial deep tech provide alternative sources of return.

The week's conclusion: the global startup and venture investment market remains generous but increasingly selective. Capital is flowing to companies that control the infrastructure, data, and customer relationships necessary for AI commercialization. For funds, the key selection criteria for Q4 2026 will be revenue quality, discipline in valuations, and realistic paths to exit.